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Predicting the ecological consequences of climate change requires 3 steps →
Predicting the ecological consequences of climate change requires 3 steps →

Predicting the ecological consequences of climate change requires 3 steps →

Step #1

Step #1

We must study the environment at scales relevant to physiology. This means time measured at the scale of activity, and microclimate measured at the scale of physical experience.

Step #2

Step #2

Translate microclimate into body temperature, using the relationships between heat transfer and organism phenotype. These patterns can be integrated with organismal performance data to predict consequences for survival, development, and reproduction.

Step #3

Step #3

Combine fitness components to predict population demography and extinction risk - ultimately, allowing us to translate air temperature into metrics that matter.

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Predicting the ecological consequences of climate change requires 3 steps →
Step #1
Step #2
Step #3
 
Ant mound at the elevation of 4100 ft at 9 am. Metabolic heat and the well-insulated thatched keep them warm in the morning. #flirone #thermalecology
With temperatures in the 90s, both waterfowl and humans seek relief from the heat of the day in the shade trees provide.
This fern is managing to stay cool in a glacial riverbed despite the rocks around it heating up in the sun. #mountbaker #pnwhiking #thermalecology #flironepro
Surprised that Easton Glacier on #mountbaker looks so cold (blue) at a distance in this thermal image from the Railroad Grade trail. Snowpack was definitely warming up on a sunny afternoon. A beautiful hike. #thermalecology #flironepro #pnwhiking #pn
Waterfalls provide a cool sanctuary from a warm July afternoon, and an obstacle for invasive Brook Trout trying to reach alpine lakes in the Pacific Northwest. #thermalecology #trenchproject #protectourfisheries
Those bright orange fireballs in the thermal images are bees. So many have discovered our blooming lavender. Buzzing as background music. Amazing how much their muscle vibrations can warm up their bodies. #thermalecology #flirone #flironepro #nature

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